GME3: Betting on Mangione Madness, TikTok’s Last Dance in Canada? & Peeling Back The Onion

In this week’s GME3, we’re looking at what the prediction markets have to say about Luigi Mangione, the suspect in the high-profile shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, TikTok’s challenge against the Canadian government’s decision to shut down its operations in Canada, and a federal bankruptcy judge’s rejection of the sale of Infowars to The Onion. Read the full stories below!

Gambling

Betting on Mangione Madness

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has seen a surge in wagers related to the high-profile case of Luigi Mangione, the suspect in the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Following Mangione’s arrest in Pennsylvania on Monday, users began betting on various aspects of the case, continuing Polymarket’s trend of creating markets around real-time news events.

One of the most active bets, with over $100,000 in volume, speculates whether a YouTube account attributed to Mangione will release another video, though odds suggest less than a 2% chance. Another bet, valued at $79,000, questions the authenticity of the YouTube channel, with odds placing its legitimacy at just 1%. Other bets address Mangione’s potential motives – one with a 64% likelihood suggests he was driven by denied health insurance claims – alongside predictions about his manifesto, extradition, plea, and whether a 3D-printed gun was used in the crime.

Polymarket, launched in 2020, gained significant traction during the 2024 presidential election, with $3 billion in trading volume and odds accurately predicting Donald Trump’s victory. Unlike user-generated markets, Polymarket’s team creates betting options based on community interest.

Mangione’s arrest came after a days-long manhunt. Authorities allege he fled Manhattan by bus following the shooting, later apprehending him with a gun, a handwritten manifesto critical of corporate America, and fake IDs. 

Media

TikTok’s Last Dance in Canada?

TikTok has filed a legal challenge against the Canadian government’s decision to shut down its operations in Canada, arguing the move will result in job losses and harm to the economy. In documents submitted to the Federal Court in Vancouver, TikTok called the order to cease Canadian operations “unreasonable” and claimed it was made for “improper purposes.”

The government issued the order in November following a national security review under the Investment Canada Act, which allows foreign investments to be scrutinized for security risks. Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne stated the action was necessary to address “specific national security risks” but did not elaborate on the concerns.

TikTok argues the decision lacks transparency, claiming the government failed to engage meaningfully with the company or provide a rational explanation for its actions. It asserts that less drastic measures could have been taken and that the shutdown will significantly impact Canadian creators, businesses, and the cultural sector. The company highlighted its contributions to the economy and public policy, including partnerships with Elections Canada and efforts to promote online safety.

Despite the shutdown order, the TikTok app will remain accessible to Canadian users. The government stands by its decision, emphasizing the priority of Canadians’ safety. TikTok is seeking a pause on the order while it continues to contest the ruling, which it says threatens jobs and economic opportunities for Canadians.

Entertainment

Peeling Back The Onion

A federal bankruptcy judge has rejected the sale of Infowars, Alex Jones’s conspiracy website, to the satirical publication The Onion. Judge Christopher M. Lopez’s decision complicates efforts to transfer the site to The Onion, which planned to repurpose it to mock conspiracy theories. This move was backed by families of Sandy Hook shooting victims, who previously won a $1.4 billion defamation case against Jones for his false claims that the 2012 shooting was a hoax.

The judge cited procedural issues, including the sealed bidding process, as a reason for rejecting the sale. He noted that the auction failed to maximize returns for Jones’s creditors, including the Sandy Hook families. The Onion’s $7 million bid, partly supported by the families’ defamation judgment, was deemed superior by a court expert but faced opposition from another bidder affiliated with Jones, which offered $3.5 million in cash.

The court-appointed trustee, Christopher Murray, has been tasked with proposing an alternative resolution. Both The Onion and the Sandy Hook families expressed disappointment but vowed to continue pursuing accountability for Jones.

Jones, in a video on X, claimed victory, accused the parties of collusion, and criticized the auction process as biased. The case, which featured heated exchanges and emotional arguments, underscored the complex interplay between legal protocol and the interests of Jones’s creditors. Judge Lopez acknowledged the emotional stakes while emphasizing the need to follow the law.